KENYAN opposition leader Raila Odinga and Tanzania’s opposition leader Tundu Lissu met today in Nairobi, Kenya, sparking significant political discourse. Raila has a history of navigating opposition politics through both resistance and dialogue. He advised Lissu and his Chadema delegation to prioritise dialogue and constructive engagement with the government. This advice, however, stands in stark contrast to Lissu’s current strategy of blocking the upcoming general election under his party’s slogan “No reforms, no election.”
The Raila-Lissu Political Paradox
While Lissu and Chadema are pushing for a hardline stance against the 2025 general election, Raila appears to be suggesting a more pragmatic approach. Raila’s message aligns with his political history in Kenya, where he has often balanced between radical opposition and strategic engagement with the government. The Tanzanian opposition leader’s insistence on blocking the election – despite its improbability – raises concerns about the effectiveness of his approach in a system where power dynamics are determined by state apparatuses and are heavily tilted in favor of the ruling party.
The Reality of “No Reforms, No Election”
Lissu’s campaign against the upcoming election is built on the premise that Tanzania’s electoral system is fundamentally flawed. He argues that without key democratic reforms, participation would legitimise an unfair process. However, history suggests that boycotting elections rarely leads to meaningful democratic change. Instead, it often marginalises the opposition, giving the ruling party a free pass. The case of ACT-Wazalendo’s 2016 election boycott, which resulted in a total CCM victory in Zanzibar, and Kenya opposition’s boycott of the 2017 election after rigged results of the general elections, should serve as a stark reminder of the consequences. Lissu, in principle, presses for blocking instead of boycotting the election – an unlikely endeavour, given the circumstances on the ground. Only heavens know where else such a strategy has worked before.
Raila’s Four Handshakes: A Model for Lissu?
Until now, Raila Odinga’s political career is marked by four significant reconciliations, or “handshakes,” with Kenyan presidents:
Daniel arap Moi (1998) – After years of opposition against the KANU regime, Raila joined forces with President Moi, leading to his appointment as KANU secretary general and government minister. This strategic move positioned Raila for future leadership and paved the way for Moi’s eventual political transition.
Mwai Kibaki (2008) – Following the disputed 2007 elections and the ensuing violence, Raila agreed to a power-sharing deal as Prime Minister in a coalition government. This ended a national crisis and allowed democratic reforms to take root, resulting in the 2010 constitution.
Uhuru Kenyatta (2018) – The famous 2018 handshake between Raila and President Kenyatta ended years of political rivalry, fostering national unity and restructuring Kenya’s political landscape.
William Ruto (2025) – Although Raila has largely opposed Ruto’s presidency, and despite Ruto’s earlier refusal to cooperate with Raila, the two eventually engaged in dialogue on key national issues, keeping the latter’s political relevance intact.
Each of these reconciliations allowed Raila to remain a central political figure, influencing governance while maintaining opposition credibility, despite strong criticism from detractors. His ability to transition between resistance and cooperation should be a key lesson for Lissu and his supporters.
Mbowe’s Failed Maridhiano: A Missed Opportunity?
Freeman Mbowe, Chadema’s former chairman, attempted a similar political handshake with President Samia Suluhu Hassan in what was dubbed maridhiano (reconciliation) between 2023 and 2024. The process aimed to create a conducive political environment for both the opposition and the ruling party. However, it collapsed due to internal resistance from both sides. Lissu led Chadema’s rejection of the dialogue, while hardliners within CCM undermined Samia’s outreach.
Unlike Raila, who has successfully maneuvered through political settlements without losing his influence, Mbowe was politically outmaneuvered by his detractors, including Lissu, who propagated that his attempt at maridhiano was a betrayal. The ruling party, taking advantage of Chadema’s lack of a unified voice and CCM’s own internal opposition against the process, failed to fully embrace reforms. The collapse of the talks has left Chadema divided, with Lissu now taking a radical path that could further isolate the opposition. Indeed, the failed maridhiano was a missed opportunity not only for Chadema, but also for Tanzania’s political future. 
Dialogue vs. Resistance: Which Path for Chadema?
Raila’s message to Lissu is clear: “opposition leaders must engage with the government while maintaining their principles.” In Kenya, even after contesting elections and leading protests, Raila has always found a way to negotiate power-sharing deals or influence policy. Lissu, on the other hand, is a militant politician who remains steadfast in rejecting any engagement with President Samia’s administration.
While principled resistance is important, history shows that a refusal to engage often backfires. This way, Chadema risks being sidelined if it continues to reject dialogue, leaving the ruling party unchallenged in the democratic space.
The Risks of Political Extremism
Lissu’s extremism and insistence on blocking the election without offering a viable alternative risks portraying Chadema as obstructionist rather than a credible government-in-waiting. Raila, despite his past disputes with electoral processes, has never outright rejected participation. Even when he lost elections he deemed fraudulent, he used legal and political channels to challenge the results while keeping his support base mobilised.
Lissu’s approach, if not recalibrated, could lead to Chadema’s further fragmentation. The opposition party is already struggling with internal divisions, with some members supporting a more diplomatic approach while others back Lissu’s hardline stance.
A Lesson from Raila’s Political Longevity
One of Raila’s strengths has been his ability to adapt to shifting political realities without abandoning his long-term goals. In contrast, Lissu’s strategy appears rigid, likely to alienate both allies and undecided voters. The lesson here is that opposition politics is not just about resistance but also about strategic compromises that keep the movement going.
The 2025 Election and Chadema’s Future
The upcoming election presents a critical moment for Tanzania’s opposition. Chadema must decide whether to engage or boycott the election, given the unlikely possibility of blocking it. If they choose the latter and fail, they risk irrelevance, as history suggests that no opposition party has successfully stopped an election.
The Need for a Unified Opposition Strategy
Unlike Raila, who has managed to unite various opposition factions behind common causes, Chadema remains deeply divided. The party needs to rethink its approach, focusing on building grassroots support, pushing for reforms through institutional channels, and maintaining political pressure without outright rejecting participation.
Raila’s Advice Should Not Be Ignored
Raila Odinga’s political experience offers invaluable lessons for Tundu Lissu and Chadema. While resistance is a necessary tool for democracy, outright rejection of engagement has historically led to the weakening of opposition movements. Lissu and his party must carefully weigh their options – boycotting the election without a clear alternative could be a political miscalculation.
The future of Tanzania’s democracy may depend on Chadema’s next move. As Tanzania moves towards the 2025 polls, for Chadema to remain relevant, they must learn from Raila’s long political journey – balancing opposition with engagement, and resistance with negotiation.
