WHEN Tanzania’s main opposition party leader Tundu Lissu sat down for a live interview on ITV’s Dakika 45 on 17th February 2025, he dramatically declared that his party would obstruct the general election unless reforms were enacted. He promised mass demonstrations to stop the polls.
VIDEO: Mark his words at 6:15-6:36 minutes.
It was the first time Lissu had given such a public interpretation of his CHADEMA party`s long-running slogan: “No Reforms, No Election.”
But his position was far more radical than what his party had actually resolved just weeks earlier. On 21st January, Chadema’s General Conference agreed to prepare for elections while pushing principal stakeholders to implement reforms. Negotiation, not obstruction, was the goal.
Lissu’s unilateral declaration shocked many in his party. It also dismantled the unity theme of “Stronger Together” that had barely held CHADEMA together after a bruising internal contest for leadership.
By promising what he could not deliver, Lissu exposed his party’s weakness and gave the regime a political gift.
As I argued on 23rd February 2025 on my Maswali Magumu programme, Lissu had no machinery to stop a national election; no solid alliances with other opposition parties, and no clear strategy beyond rhetoric. His approach risked branding Chadema as reckless. And it did.
VIDEO: My response. My advice.
By April, internal dissent surfaced under the banner of the G-55, a group of cadres who insisted Chadema should contest while demanding reforms. Meanwhile, thousands of frustrated members defected to other opposition parties willing to participate in the election.
The regime, unsurprisingly, called Lissu’s action a bluff. He was arrested after a well-attended rally at Mbinga town in the Southern region of Ruvuma, and has since remained behind bars facing treason charges. His party has since shifted its language – from obstructing to boycotting elections.
But either way, the damage is done. A two-month campaign for the October General Election was flagged off on 28th August – five days ago.
President Samia Suluhu Hassan and her ruling CCM party are the biggest winners. And with Chadema opting out of the race, the 2025 General Election may turn out to be the least competitive since the return to multiparty politics in Tanzania. Ironically, that may allow the government to showcase a peaceful, less brutal election to international observers.
The absence of Chadema means less confrontation, less visible violence and, ultimately, a smoother path for Samia.
In the eyes of critics, Lissu has unwittingly run a hidden campaign for the president he vowed to unseat. His gamble to scare the regime into reforms has instead eased its grip on power.
History offers a cautionary tale. In 1995, Augustino Mrema’s NCCR-Mageuzi party rode a wave of public popularity that threatened CCM’s dominance. But Mrema’s empty rhetoric and lack of strategy, quickly tore the party apart; leaving CCM stronger than ever. Today, Lissu risks taking the same route.
Once a stronghold status holder, Chadema is now in jeopardy. Worse still, without state subvention – its financial lifeline – and concomitant decline of organisational strength, the party is likely to wither.
To be sure, Lissu remains popular on social media and on the ground, and Chadema still commands passionate support. But digital applause without ground action does not replace electoral presence.
Without a practical strategy, the party risks becoming a loud pressure group rather than a viable political challenger.
However, Chadema`s central demand – credible electoral reforms – is both valid and urgent; but by pursuing it unwarily, the party has undermined its own cause. In politics, timing and strategy matter as much as principle.
The 2025 General Election will not be the vibrant contest Tanzanians expected. It will be quieter, less confrontational; and all the easier for CCM to dominate.
Lissu may have thought he was casting a vote for reform. In practice, he has cast a vote for Samia Suluhu Hassan’s second term in office. An ignominy.
